Water FractalTier 1
at Store Champs
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-1-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1259
· median 1259
· range 1259–1259
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1125
Q1 1179
Q3 1329
1484
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Water Allies | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
